Macro and Markets

This is the first in a recurring series on what the underlying detail tables can tell us about the path of investment across the broader macroeconomy.

Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,