Macro and Markets
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,
This is a public Causal Theme post on our High-Frequency Descriptive Analysis distribution. Consider subscribing to our full distribution by reaching out to us here. Bottom Line: The current flight in deposits away from smaller banks to larger banks represents a more exogenous form of financial conditions tightening, primarily through
We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic
We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic and policy dynamics are affecting financial conditions and, by extension, our assessment of the economic growth outlook.
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
We're doing the dirty work of translating inflation inputs into PCE in real-time for you. There are some dark parts of PCE not related to CPI and PPI; we'll be back with an update when PCE is released. The associated heatmaps are dense, but they aim
Retail sales showed strength in January. As a proxy for gross labor income trends, it confirms both (1) the resilience we're seeing in the labor market and (2) the amplified role of residual seasonality (December understates growth, January overstates/rebounds). Real-time data-watching was already complicated enough due to
We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after the PPI release, which will inevitably reshape the nowcast. The associated heatmaps are somewhat dense and intense: they give a holistic view
We'll have our usual monthly inflation preview soon, but for those curious, here's a bit of a preview to the preview... We all should take heart in how 2022H2 highlighted the possibility and plausibility of a 'soft landing'—disinflation without more unemployment—at odds
