Nowcast

Nowcast | Feb 17, 2023

Core-Cast: Import Price Data Tempers Upside PCE Nowcast For January. Year-over-Year Readings May Not Rise

by Skanda Amarnath

Core-Cast is our real-time nowcasting model that tracks the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but translation from CPI to PCE must be done with care. Meanwhile,

| Nowcast | Feb 17, 2023

Core-Cast: Import Price Data Tempers Upside PCE Nowcast For January. Year-over-Year Readings May Not Rise

by Skanda Amarnath

CPI | Feb 16, 2023

Core-Cast: Year-over-Year PCE Inflation Readings Now Set To Move Higher From December To January

by Skanda Amarnath

We're doing the dirty work of translating inflation inputs into PCE in real-time for you. There are some dark parts of PCE not related to CPI and PPI; we'll be back with an update when PCE is released. The associated heatmaps are dense, but they aim

CPI | Feb 14, 2023

Introducing The Core-Cast: What We Learned About The Fed's PCE Inflation Gauges From January CPI

by Skanda Amarnath

We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after the PPI release, which will inevitably reshape the nowcast. The associated heatmaps are somewhat dense and intense: they give a holistic view

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