Preview

This is a truncated version of the preview initially made available to our exclusive distribution this past Monday. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and

With the labor market still strong and April inflation representing an improvement over Q1 but still not good enough, the committee is in “looking for confidence” mode.

This is a truncated version of the preview initially made available to our exclusive distribution this past Friday. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and

Every member that's spoken since the March meeting has expressed both a further desire to be patient on starting rate cuts (in response to the inflation data) and confidence that holding rates steady for longer will, on the margin, come with less downside risk to the labor market.

Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage components that only come out on the day

Our baseline forecast of the dots sees most of the dots holding steady, with some dots taking cuts off for this year. . This leaves three cuts as our baseline median dot—but just barely.