Systematic Monitors

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

Our baseline forecast of the dots sees most of the dots holding steady, with some dots taking cuts off for this year. . This leaves three cuts as our baseline median dot—but just barely.