Fedspeak Monitor

Nothing new in the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period, just FOMC members retrenching their previous positions.

The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44%, combined with dovish Fedspeak from Williams, pushes us to update our Fed Views. Our baseline is now one cut by January, more likely than not in December.

A lot of hawkish Fedspeak from the regional bank presidents this week.

Without further signs of deterioration in the labor market, the Committee is unlikely to cut in December. By our count, a majority of the FOMC is leaning against a December cut.

This week we heard from a number of doves who were non-commital about a December cut.

At the FOMC press conference Powell made clear that there is a lot of disagreement over whether or not the Fed will cut in December, and that was reflected in the Fedspeak this week.

In the absence of government data releases, Powell said his outlook remained unchanged, signaling the Fed's intention to cut anyways in October.

The Fedspeak took a turn for the dovish this week, with several members revising their assessment of the balance of risks towards the labor market.

In the absence of jobs data last week, FOMC members mostly continued explaining the same views as they did the previous week.