Fedspeak Monitor

With most of the week covered by the Fed’s blackout period and FOMC meeting, updates are light on this week’s Fedspeak Monitor. On Wednesday, Chair Powell made sure during the press conference everyone understood that the decision to shift from: “We no longer state that we anticipate that

With most of the week covered by the Fed’s blackout period and FOMC meeting, updates are light on this week’s Fedspeak Monitor. On Wednesday, Chair Powell made sure during the press conference everyone understood that the decision to shift from:

We’ve received a flurry of Fedspeak ahead of the blackout period. But given how little new macroeconomic data we have received since the SVB fallout (most March surveys will fail to capture an effect), we doubt that there has been much innovation from March interest rate projections to what

A wealth of Fedspeak this week has substantially clarified whose dots were whose on the most recent SEP. Goolsbee’s dovish speech strongly suggests the lone 4.875 dot was his, while Waller makes the case for further hikes. Bostic and Harker strongly implied their previous dots landed at 5.

Still too early to say about June dots, but this week’s Fedspeak suggests the Fed sees the turmoil in the wake of SVB as unlikely to widen, but of possible sectoral relevance as a shock to small businesses, as we noted last week. Bullard is worried about OPEC’s

We think it’s too early to make any judgments about June dots but it seems clearer that Susan Collins’ priors remain geared towards further tightening, while Neel Kashkari consistently sounded more cautious about macroeconomic implications from banking turmoil.