Fedspeak Monitor

This week, FOMC members continue to project confidence in the ability of the economy to withstand the risk of a recession from tariff policy, at least long enough to allow the Fed to figure out what to do.

The post-FOMC Fedspeak from the rest of the Committee was as noncommittal as the press conference.

The Fedspeak this week is still: wait and see, and we care most about keeping inflation under control.

The Committee is still super worried about long-term inflation expectations, and everyone from Goolsbee to Kashkari say that keeping those down is the highest priority.

Despite the tariff announcement, Fedspeak is nearly indistinguishable from last week.

We're starting to get more color from Fed officials about how they see tariffs playing out. Everyone is qualifying their comments with heavy pinches of salt.

We have updated our dot estimates with the March SEP dots.

A light week of Fedspeak this week, with little new revelations.

As tariff policy starts to be implemented, the Committee seems to be coalescing on a view that they'd like to look through tariffs if they result in a one-off increase in prices, but are concerned about the possibility of long-term expectations becoming unanchored.