Fedspeak Monitor

We're starting to get more color from Fed officials about how they see tariffs playing out. Everyone is qualifying their comments with heavy pinches of salt.

We have updated our dot estimates with the March SEP dots.

A light week of Fedspeak this week, with little new revelations.

As tariff policy starts to be implemented, the Committee seems to be coalescing on a view that they'd like to look through tariffs if they result in a one-off increase in prices, but are concerned about the possibility of long-term expectations becoming unanchored.

The calls for patience continue, especially with tariff uncertainty.

This week, FOMC members across the spectrum cited policy uncertainty, especially around tariffs, as a reason for putting any further rate cuts on hold.

We only heard from Goolsbee and Bowman after this week's FOMC meeting, but both the hawk and dove agree that the lack of policy and economic uncertainty from the new Administration's policy is going to make things difficult.

In the last week of Fedspeak before the January blackout period, Waller continued to signal openness to more cuts in 2025 and optimism about the inflationary trajectory.

Waller supports more rate cuts, isn't worried about tariffs.