Fedspeak Monitor

The calls for patience continue, especially with tariff uncertainty.

This week, FOMC members across the spectrum cited policy uncertainty, especially around tariffs, as a reason for putting any further rate cuts on hold.

We only heard from Goolsbee and Bowman after this week's FOMC meeting, but both the hawk and dove agree that the lack of policy and economic uncertainty from the new Administration's policy is going to make things difficult.

In the last week of Fedspeak before the January blackout period, Waller continued to signal openness to more cuts in 2025 and optimism about the inflationary trajectory.

Waller supports more rate cuts, isn't worried about tariffs.

A light week of Fedspeak heading into the New Year.

A handful of Fedspeak after the FOMC meeting, but nothing surprising.

Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.

A lot of Fedspeak this week, enough to firm up our view that there will be a cut in December, with a January pause.