Fedspeak Monitor

A little bit of post-game analysis from Bowman and Waller. Waller defends 50 by pointing to the implications of the CPI and PPI data received during blackout period for core PCE.

It's the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period for the September meeting. Everyone speaking this week is on board with Powell's assessment that the labor market is at least balanced.

A quiet week after Jackson Hole. What we did hear this past week showed that Powell has some convincing to do on the Committee.

Powell's Jackson Hole speech made clear that rate cuts will begin in September. Most notable what he did not say: "gradual." Powell is keeping the door open to a larger cut in September.

Bostic and Musalem, two members on the hawkish side of the Committee, joined the rest of the Committee in signalling an openness to rate cuts in September.

The Committee continues to react to the July jobs numbers.

Just a couple of reactions to the jobs data last week from Barkin and Goolsbee, both downplaying the jobs report.

Another week of Fedspeak hearing from the dovish side of the Committee, who are mostly pushing back on July.

Powell laid the groundwork for rate cuts this week. While he wasn't specific about timing at the Humphrey Hawkins hearings, he was dovish enough that the subsequent inflation release solidifies a September start to the cutting cycle.