FOMC Preview

We expect the rate cut to be accompanied with a strong preference for optionality to  pause at the next meeting, with no clear commitments to further cuts anytime soon. Our baseline case has the median projection at 2 more cuts in 2026, but with nine members projecting no more than one cut.

We expect the rate cut to be accompanied with a strong preference for optionality to  pause at the next meeting, with no clear commitments to further cuts anytime soon. Our baseline case has the median projection at 2 more cuts in 2026, but with nine members projecting no more than one cut.

With the government shutdown, the intermeeting period did not have enough data to deter the Fed from cutting by 25bps again in October.

After a sufficiently worrying jobs report, a 25bp cut at next week’s meeting is a lock—with a slight possibility of a 50bp cut.

After a sufficiently worrying jobs report, a 25bp cut at next week’s meeting is a lock—with a slight possibility of a 50bp cut.

Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite will receive our FOMC preview a week early, at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. What To Expect: The Fed has signaled a hold on interest rates not just in June, but throughout the summer. With risks to the inflation trajectory on

The uncertainty over tariffs put inflation targeting’s weakness on display.

Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite receive our FOMC preview at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. A public version of the preview will be released closer to the meeting.  If you're interested in becoming a MacroSuite subscriber, please reach out to macrosuite@employamerica.org What