Inflation Analysis
Quantitative research that disaggregates price data to identify which goods and services are driving inflation, and uncovering the specific supply-side disruptions that are behind the increase. This detailed analysis allows us to predict inflation trajectories with remarkable accuracy - our forecasts have outperformed predictions from several prominent financial institutions. We design targeted responses that address root causes rather than symptoms, enabling policymakers to combat rising prices without sacrificing the employment gains that benefit American workers.
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If inflation feels virtually nonexistent to some, that may soon change. The May CPI release showed a much slower pace of price increases than expected. Some of that reflects lagged effects to housing components of inflation relative to events that transpired 2-3 years ago. And it is also true that
Executive Summary Congress is considering raising the tax burden on electricity investment and production supported through tax credits (ITC & PTC) enacted in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). These provisions support building generation capacity across a range of sources, including nuclear, geothermal, energy storage, wind, solar, and hydro,
Many thanks to Pavan Venkatakrishnan, James Hewett, and Alex Turnbull for their thoughtful contributions to this piece. Introduction The House Ways and Means Committee has proposed rescinding hundreds of billions of dollars in energy tax credits established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). One critical — and largely overlooked — casualty of
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all
Summary The post-pandemic period was marked by global forces that raised inflation across all developed economies. Dominant explanations of inflation should be of a similarly global character. Policy discussions that reckon with counterfactuals and explainable magnitudes must go beyond nation-specific policies and dynamics. While local policies always shape inflation outcomes
We believe that the proposed product is not in the public interest, at least at this time, and would actively undermine Freddie Mac’s goals to support housing supply and affordability.
There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations at this juncture. We should all be thrilled by the past 6-7 months of inflation data, but it is ultimately only 6-7
One argument that the labor market is to blame for high inflation has been the significant rise in unit labor costs during the post-pandemic recovery. The most recent example comes from the ECB:
Throughout the pandemic recovery, high inflation has been attributed to tight labor markets and high wage growth. Fed officials have, for months, maintained that the labor market needs to soften in order to bring down inflation. Commentators have pointed to high wage growth as a source of cost-push inflation: My
