Jobs Day

All in all, still a soft report. Methodological quirks explain some of the weakness but they only go so far. The Fed won't see this as a reason to cut imminently, but they'll be on guard.

We're still digesting the -92,000 payroll print. But here are our quick takes.

The details of the household survey were unambiguously good, with increasing employment and participation, lower part-time underemployment, and an improving composition of employment and unemployment.

Like pretty much every report this year, it’s a low-hire, low-fire report with weakness on the margins—but not quite as dire as the unemployment rate suggests.

While the increase in the unemployment rate isn't dire, there are definitely signs of weakness in the labor market.

Given the lack of data between now and the next meeting, unemployment claims and soft data may determine the tiebreak.

This is an soft report, with slow payroll growth, and a new cycle high in unemployment.

Job growth has slowed sharply, and even if one attributes a large part of that to slowing labor supply from lower immigration, prime-age employment rates are now down 0.5pp from a year ago