Monthly employment reports provide crucial snapshots of labor market health, but headline numbers often mask important underlying trends. We assess wage growth patterns to determine whether workers are receiving their fair share of economic growth, and analyze labor force participation rates to identify barriers to employment.
Jobs Day
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61 Posts
Dec 16, 2025
While the increase in the unemployment rate isn't dire, there are definitely signs of weakness in the labor market.
Nov 20, 2025
Given the lack of data between now and the next meeting, unemployment claims and soft data may determine the tiebreak.
Sep 05, 2025
This is an soft report, with slow payroll growth, and a new cycle high in unemployment.
Aug 01, 2025
Job growth has slowed sharply, and even if one attributes a large part of that to slowing labor supply from lower immigration, prime-age employment rates are now down 0.5pp from a year ago
On the whole, this is a good jobs report. It’s hard to find much fault with the data here, and it significantly diminishes the prospects of a July cut.
Jun 06, 2025
The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.
This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.
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Mar 07, 2025