Monthly employment reports provide crucial snapshots of labor market health, but headline numbers often mask important underlying trends. We assess wage growth patterns to determine whether workers are receiving their fair share of economic growth, and analyze labor force participation rates to identify barriers to employment.
Jobs Day
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56 Posts
On the whole, this is a good jobs report. It’s hard to find much fault with the data here, and it significantly diminishes the prospects of a July cut.
Jun 06, 2025
The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.
This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.
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Mar 07, 2025
So far, the labor market has taken the slowdown in labor demand in the healthiest way possible. If the labor market slows more than expected, the Fed may not have the luxury of patience anymore.
The following post was released to our MacroSuite subscribers subscribers on 2/25/2025. If you'd like to start a 90-day free trial of our exclusive content, you can do so using this link. If you have any questions or would like to see samples of our past
Following up on our publication of "real-time" payroll growth time series that cut through data revision issues (see more here) , we are now publishing regular updates of our forward-looking payrolls views to our MacroSuite subscribers. Feb 2025 Baseline Views (Assume No Revisions) * Nonfarm Payrolls: +160k monthly gain. We
The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.
