Monthly employment reports provide crucial snapshots of labor market health, but headline numbers often mask important underlying trends. We assess wage growth patterns to determine whether workers are receiving their fair share of economic growth, and analyze labor force participation rates to identify barriers to employment.
Jobs Day
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58 Posts
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Sep 03, 2024
Labor Markets
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Aug 02, 2024
A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.
With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.
Jobs Day
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Jun 07, 2024
The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.
Labor Markets
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May 03, 2024
The data is consistent with those hoping for a soft landing—and soft landing cuts.
This is overall a good jobs report. Job growth is solid, and there are no obvious signs of weakness.
After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.
The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.
