Our Labor Market Analysis goes beyond conventional unemployment statistics to assess the true health of the job market. We track prime-age (25-54) employment rates, various wage growth measures, and job dynamism indicators like quits and hires to measure labor market tightness.
Labor Market Analysis
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33 Posts
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Nov 14, 2025
Both initial and continuing claims fell slightly with this week's data.
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Nov 07, 2025
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Oct 31, 2025
Key Takeaways: * This post is a follow up to our piece last week outlining why Reported Quarterly Growth (RQG) is a better approach to accounting for data changes more transparently. * This methodology allows us to account for revisions more robustly and to run rigorous back-tests and stress-tests to see how
Aug 05, 2025
Revisions to macroeconomic data happen. Frequently. To almost all major releases, not just nonfarm payroll employment. Sometimes those revisions are large, and they are often largest at critical inflection points in the business cycle. Some of the largest revisions to employment and GDP transpired around the 2007-09 Great Recession, where
AI may be a hot topic, but there isn't strong evidence that it’s responsible for the weaker labor market for recent college graduates.
OBBBA not only directly reduces support for Americans facing material insecurity, but it also heightens the risk and impact of a future economic downturn.
May 02, 2025
So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.
Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.