Monetary Policy

When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.

By delaying rate cuts in search of certainty, the Fed risks being behind the ball. The FOMC should actively keep the option of a 50 basis point cut on the table between now and the September meeting.

This article is intended to serve as a follow-up to the #FloorGLI proposal in “Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices.” The official national accounts estimate of gross labor income (GLI) is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), but because of sharp

Fire prevention—rather than fire fighting—is a better approach to risk management when it comes to the labor market. When it comes to unemployment risk, the Fed should be proactive and preemptive, not reactive.

Today's data largely confirmed what we've known for some time now: the Fed's restrictive policies are restricting the level and growth of homebuilding activity in the US economy. But when we think holistically about the relevance of homebuilding to price stability, the restrictive effects

As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.

In this piece, we take a deeper dive into the finer details of the national accounts to gain some insight into how exactly monetary policy is restricting investment.

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

In this piece, we’ll take a look at how the Fed’s thinking on the labor market has changed as the data validated or disproved various hypotheses in 2023.