The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions shape the economic landscape, influencing borrowing costs for everything from mortgages and auto loans to business investments. These policy changes directly affect whether businesses expand operations, invest in equipment, or increase staffing. At Employ America, we research how the Fed can better balance its dual mandate, advocating for approaches that prioritize achieving and sustaining full employment while utilizing more targeted tools to address inflationary pressures.
Monetary Policy
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Read the Latest
59 Posts
Conventional wisdom has held that rate hikes slow inflation long enough that straightforward accounts of how exactly one turns into the other are hard to find. Today, everyone needs to be on the same page about how exactly it is that Fed policy in particular can slow inflation.
Feb 01, 2022
We provide an update on what our in-house monetary policy framework suggests about the appropriate trajectory for monetary policy using more reliable “real-time” measures of gross labor income
Critical to the Fed successfully achieving maximum employment over the short run and the longer run is a commitment to, and a communication of, “maximum employment” that is Credible, Broad, and Inclusive.
If the Fed wants to stay true to the "maximum employment" component of its forward guidance, and the "broad and inclusive" nature of that goal, it is imperative that their interest rate policy actions reflect a full recovery on both of these measures.
Despite widespread use by commentators and policymakers, the models commonly used to argue for the importance of "inflation expectations" are difficult to confirm empirically, and risk a hawkish policy bias.
Sep 14, 2021
Whenever inflation becomes a part of political or economic discourse, policymakers and commentators instinctively reach for narratives and models drawn from the experience of the 1970s inflation. However, these models offer little explanation for even adjacent experiences of inflation.
Jun 17, 2021
Given the Fed’s recent framework revisions and forward guidance commitment to maintain current interest rates until “maximum employment” is achieved, the Fed’s communication with respect to its assessment of “maximum employment” is overdue for a clarification.
Federal Reserve
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Oct 02, 2020
The Fed’s recent forward guidance on its zero interest rate policy was a welcome sign that the Fed’s monetary policy strategy is giving appropriate emphasis to the achievement of sustainably tight labor markets. We highlight four welcome takeaways worth celebrating and building upon.
Aug 27, 2020
The Fed has chosen to double down on an inflation-oriented framework for setting monetary policy. While there are some advantages in the current environment to an “average inflation targeting” scheme that affirmatively permits inflation to rise at least modestly past 2%, this approach is not particularly robust to a scenario
