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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

237 Posts
Preston Mui

We expect the dots to move upwards, with most members that projected cuts in December taking a cut out of their projections. We see the median on the knife-edge, with half of the Committee projecting no cuts.

We expect the dots to move upwards, with most members that projected cuts in December taking a cut out of their projections. We see the median on the knife-edge, with half of the Committee projecting no cuts.

Altogether, the jobs data moved the Committee marginally, but noticeably, more dovish compared to last week. Not enough for a March cut, but they're on guard.

All in all, still a soft report. Methodological quirks explain some of the weakness but they only go so far. The Fed won't see this as a reason to cut imminently, but they'll be on guard.

 |  Mar 06, 2026

We're still digesting the -92,000 payroll print. But here are our quick takes.

Our baseline is for no cuts this year.

The meeting minutes released last week showed some strong resolve from the hawks, and the Fedspeak from last week leaned hawkish after this month's jobs report and a marginally hot PCE nowcast for January.

While the market has gotten more optimistic about cuts, we are going the other way. We have no cuts in 2026H1 as our base case, given the trajectory of inflation and the enduring steadiness of the labor market.

The details of the household survey were unambiguously good, with increasing employment and participation, lower part-time underemployment, and an improving composition of employment and unemployment.

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