Preston Mui

Committee members this week voiced a range of views about the urgency to cut. The jobs data from earlier this month has shifted most of the Committee in the dovish direction, some more than others.

The 2020 Fed Framework changes around full employment were appropriate and an important part of achieving the full employment recovery seen after the pandemic. Blaming it for historically unique demand- and supply-side inflationary shocks misses the mark.

After last week's jobs reports, we're hearing Committee members pivot to talking about a September cut.

After FOMC and the July jobs report, we heard from Bowman and Waller defending their dissent at last week's meeting. A few others reacted to the jobs report and the downside revisions to the previous two months.

Job growth has slowed sharply, and even if one attributes a large part of that to slowing labor supply from lower immigration, prime-age employment rates are now down 0.5pp from a year ago

With inflation risk still unresolved and the labor market still looking similar to how it did in the previous meeting, the Committee is still mostly in wait-and-see mode.

With inflation risk still unresolved and the labor market still looking similar to how it did in the previous meeting, the Committee is still mostly in wait-and-see mode. But Waller and Bowman will be ready to move.

Waller continued to advocate for a July cut this week, arguing that policy is "just too tight."

ICYMI: The Past, Present, And Future Of Macroeconomic Policy Overview Employ America was founded to advance the cause of full employment. In a full employment economy, jobs are plentiful, wage growth is strong, and opportunities expand to those typically left out of the workforce. Full employment is also critical to