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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

243 Posts
Preston Mui

Even without an estimate of population growth, one can infer that the breakeven growth rate of nonfarm payrolls has fallen.

Fedspeak was largely unchanged from previous weeks, given the uncertainty stemming from the fallout of the Iran conflict. On the whole, Fed officials are more concerned about inflation than the labor market.

This is a solid jobs report, but the confusion over nonfarm payroll prints continues.

Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"

Fedspeak was largely unchanged from previous weeks, given the uncertainty stemming from the fallout of the Iran conflict. On the whole, Fed officials are more concerned about inflation than the labor market.

Altogether, the jobs data moved the Committee marginally, but noticeably, more dovish compared to last week. Not enough for a March cut, but they're on guard.

We expect the dots to move upwards, with most members that projected cuts in December taking a cut out of their projections. We see the median on the knife-edge, with half of the Committee projecting no cuts.

We expect the dots to move upwards, with most members that projected cuts in December taking a cut out of their projections. We see the median on the knife-edge, with half of the Committee projecting no cuts.

Altogether, the jobs data moved the Committee marginally, but noticeably, more dovish compared to last week. Not enough for a March cut, but they're on guard.

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