Preston Mui

The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.

Our baseline projection has the median June dot at two cuts, but it's on a knife-edge with one cut now.

We finally heard from Waller this week in two speeches, one covering the recent economic data and another about his thoughts on r-star.

The committee sounds pretty relieved after the April inflation numbers. While none of them are suddenly at the point of "great confidence" we've all been waiting for, they are nonetheless encouraged by the recent data.

We heard from voices across the hawkish-dovish spectrum today, continuing to highlight the divergence of views in the committee.

Just a bit of Fedspeak after this week's FOMC meeting, none of it particularly revealing.

The data is consistent with those hoping for a soft landing—and soft landing cuts.

Every member that's spoken since the March meeting has expressed both a further desire to be patient on starting rate cuts (in response to the inflation data) and confidence that holding rates steady for longer will, on the margin, come with less downside risk to the labor market.

Fed officials across the board are now saying that the last three months of inflation data have pushed back the timing for rate cuts.