Preston Mui

Labor Market Recap January 2023: The data from the January labor market show an unequivocally strong labor market. Nearly every indicator from every data source is showing strong employment against a backdrop of slowing nominal price and wage growth. Although the consensus anticipated an uptick, the unemployment rate fell to

In our previous piece in our vacancies series, we took a deep dive into Ball, Leigh and Mishra (2022), “Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era,” a paper presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference in September 2022. The paper, which warned that the Fed’s...

What to Expect: 1. The Fed will continue moderating its pace of rate hikes, stepping down to 25 basis point hikes. 2. With favorable disinflationary data coming in from both wages and prices since the last meeting, the key question is whether or not the Fed continues to think it

While layoffs are painful to workers, more attention needs to be paid to the threat of a rise in unemployment arising from a slowdown in hiring. In this report, we examine the important role that a fall in hiring rates plays during unemployment increases.

New data from December shows a labor market that remains strong all-around even as wages have begun to decelerate. The unemployment rate ticked down from 3.6% to 3.5%, while prime-age employment increased from 79.7% to 80.1%. The establishment survey continued to show growing employment, but at

The Fed says that the labor market needs to cool in order to bring inflation down. A key part of the case for maintaining the current pace of rate hikes is built on high measures of wage growth. Jay Powell cited the last average hourly earnings figure as one sign

As Congress considers a year-end spending bill, it faces a decision that will have a meaningful effect on inflation: whether or not to extend across-the-board Medicare reimbursement rates.

Overall the labor market data from November show a mixed picture, with the establishment survey showing resilience even as the household survey signaling a slowdown.