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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

184 Posts
Preston Mui

The uncertainty over tariffs put inflation targeting’s weakness on display.

Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite receive our FOMC preview at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. A public version of the preview will be released closer to the meeting.  If you're interested in becoming a MacroSuite subscriber, please reach out to macrosuite@employamerica.org What

The Fed faces risk from multiple directions and is experiencing a high level of uncertainty. Our baseline scenario sees the hawks mostly unchanged and the doves to consolidate towards two cuts for 2025.

So far, the labor market has taken the slowdown in labor demand in the healthiest way possible. If the labor market slows more than expected, the Fed may not have the luxury of patience anymore.

A light week of Fedspeak this week, with little new revelations.

As tariff policy starts to be implemented, the Committee seems to be coalescing on a view that they'd like to look through tariffs if they result in a one-off increase in prices, but are concerned about the possibility of long-term expectations becoming unanchored.

The calls for patience continue, especially with tariff uncertainty.

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