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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

200 Posts
Preston Mui

A light week of Fedspeak, but a few notable pieces from some of the Committee.

There's still a lot of speculation around the effects of tariffs in this week's Fedspeak, but they're still waiting for the data. The uncertainty around other policies is also encouraging them to stay noncommital on rate movements.

This week, FOMC members continue to project confidence in the ability of the economy to withstand the risk of a recession from tariff policy, at least long enough to allow the Fed to figure out what to do.

The post-FOMC Fedspeak from the rest of the Committee was as noncommittal as the press conference.

Last week's data leaves our take on the FOMC meeting unchanged. There are updated charts and tables with labor market and inflation data from the previous week.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.

So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.

 |  Apr 28, 2025

The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.

Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.

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