Preston Mui

The 1990s saw an extended period of full employment, high growth, and low inflation. Part of this achievement was attributable to healthcare cost control efforts undertaken by both public- and private-sector actors.

With another hot PCE print on the way, December is looking less-sure. No one is saying that they want to pause outright, but the door to a pause is wide open.

Powell made the headlines with his rejection of any notion that President-elect Trump could force him to leave, but beyond that the November FOMC press conference was fairly boring (in a good way).

After the excitement at the September meeting,  November is going to be relatively less exciting.

Due to the October payroll number marred by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the real signal comes from the household survey (where those who are absent due to weather are still counted as employed) and the negative revisions to previous months.

As economic risks shift from inflation toward the labor market, the Federal Reserve has begun the process of normalizing interest rates. While inflation is certainly lower than a year ago, that doesn't mean that inflationary risks are dead, either now or in the future. One stark lesson of

This is the last chance for Fedspeak before the pre-November meeting blackout period. This week we mostly heard from the hawkish side of the committee, all of whom are emphasizing a gradual path of rate cuts.

A quiet week of Fedspeak, with Waller and Bostic expressing disappointment in the September inflation data.

With fears of rising unemployment falling a bit with the September jobs data, the Committee's focus shifts back a bit towards inflation. As with before the September rate cut, the Committee is divided in its confidence around inflation's path back to 2%.