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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

184 Posts
Preston Mui

Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.

Powell's Jackson Hole speech made clear that rate cuts will begin in September. Most notable what he did not say: "gradual." Powell is keeping the door open to a larger cut in September.

When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.

Bostic and Musalem, two members on the hawkish side of the Committee, joined the rest of the Committee in signalling an openness to rate cuts in September.

The Committee continues to react to the July jobs numbers.

Just a couple of reactions to the jobs data last week from Barkin and Goolsbee, both downplaying the jobs report.

A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.

By delaying rate cuts in search of certainty, the Fed risks being behind the ball. The FOMC should actively keep the option of a 50 basis point cut on the table between now and the September meeting.

While Fedspeak has certainly shifted during the past few weeks, few members are itching to cut rates at the July meeting.

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