Data

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

This preview was originally released this past Sunday to Premium Donors. If you would like to get the first look at this kind of content, please feel free to reach out to us here or start a 30-day free trial today Sections: 1. Summary 2. Key Dynamics Within Baseline View

The data from the June labor market shows continued strength in the labor market, with strong employment and wage growth. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.6% from 3.7% and the establishment survey showed a solid 209,000 jobs added in June, consistent with our preview. While below

One argument that the labor market is to blame for high inflation has been the significant rise in unit labor costs during the post-pandemic recovery. The most recent example comes from the ECB:

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption