ECI

This article is intended to serve as a follow-up to the #FloorGLI proposal in “Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices.” The official national accounts estimate of gross labor income (GLI) is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), but because of sharp

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

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Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent with what the other Q4 macroeconomic & wage data was signaling. The scenario poised to trigger a hawkish overreaction did not materialize.