Employment

An earlier version of this piece erroneously attributed this to the wrong author. The author is Preston Mui. Last Friday, we learned that the unemployment rate in August 2023 increased to 3.8% to 3.5%. The employment-to-population ratio was flat at 60.4%, and labor force participation increased to

Summary The main purpose of real-time macroeconomic data releases is to track the evolution in the underlying growth rate of economic activity. The precise levels of employment, wages, total hours, and total dollars of payroll expenditure are less meaningful, and most ripe for substantial revision over time. But even short-run

The August 2023 labor market data points to a labor market that, while strong and not recessionary, is certainly slowing down more starkly than earlier this year. The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.8% from 3.5%, and the establishment survey showed 187,000 jobs added in August (albeit

The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels of employment amidst a disinflationary environment. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, consistent with our preview, and

The data from the June labor market shows continued strength in the labor market, with strong employment and wage growth. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.6% from 3.7% and the establishment survey showed a solid 209,000 jobs added in June, consistent with our preview. While below