Fed Expectations

With the Fourth of July falling midweek this week, we did not see very much new Fedspeak. Williams, Logan and Goolsbee all made hawkish comments, suggesting a need for further rate hikes this year.

The data from the June labor market shows continued strength in the labor market, with strong employment and wage growth. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.6% from 3.7% and the establishment survey showed a solid 209,000 jobs added in June, consistent with our preview. While below

This week was light on Fedspeak, with new statements from committee members Powell, Daly, Williams and Bostic. Bostic took a dovish note, further reiterating his belief that the Fed should consider the most recent meeting the beginning of a pause, rather than a skip in the hiking cycle.

This week was light on Fedspeak, with new statements from committee members Powell, Daly, Williams and Bostic. Bostic took a dovish note, further reiterating his belief that the Fed should consider the most recent meeting the beginning of a pause, rather than a skip in the hiking cycle. Williams did

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic