Fed Policy

The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.

Today’s hot PCE print keeps a June hike plausibly in play though it still seems like a hold is the better baseline view. This week saw another big round of Fedspeak — though we are still notably waiting on updates from Esther George.

Today’s hot PCE print keeps a June hike plausibly in play though it still seems like a hold is the better baseline view. This week saw another big round of Fedspeak — though we are still notably waiting on updates from Esther George.

Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots.We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.

Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots. We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.

This past week saw a flurry of fedspeak with a bit of a common theme: waiting for the data. The next few weeks leading up to the June meeting will see new readings from a wide range of indicators, PCE and Jobs Day most important among them.