Fed Policy
The Fed faces risk from multiple directions and is experiencing a high level of uncertainty. Our baseline scenario sees the hawks mostly unchanged and the doves to consolidate towards two cuts for 2025.
If you enjoy our content and would like to support our work, we offer a premium, high-frequency macro research service, Macro Suite. If you’re interested in gaining access, please feel free to reach out to us here for more information. What To Expect Very little. The Fed signaled a
Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.
The Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing interest rates at the September 18th, 2024 FOMC meeting. While the timing of the first rate cut was telegraphed well in advance, the magnitude—25 or 50 basis points—was not. A week prior to the meeting, market pricing, as well as
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage components that only come out on the days
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
