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Fed Policy

Tariffs are back. With President Trump implementing and still proposing sweeping new import tariffs, the U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of policy-driven price increases and a new round of supply-driven cost-push inflation. If enacted for a long enough period of time, these policies could

The uncertainty over tariffs put inflation targeting’s weakness on display.

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The Fed faces risk from multiple directions and is experiencing a high level of uncertainty. Our baseline scenario sees the hawks mostly unchanged and the doves to consolidate towards two cuts for 2025.

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