Federal Reserve

Without further signs of deterioration in the labor market, the Committee is unlikely to cut in December. By our count, a majority of the FOMC is leaning against a December cut.

A light week of Fedspeak. We heard from Powell this week, who dodged a question about a July cut.

This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part 2 discusses the implications of recent productivity dynamics, Part 3 discusses the Fed&

An eventful week of Fedspeak changes many of our views of where Committee members are.

In the days after the FOMC press conference, we have a couple of speakers talking about the possibility that they may need to move to protect the labor market.

Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite will receive our FOMC preview a week early, at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. What To Expect: The Fed has signaled a hold on interest rates not just in June, but throughout the summer. With risks to the inflation trajectory on

It’s just a waiting game for the inflation data to show the effect of tariffs or the labor market starts to show signs of breaking.

A light week of Fedspeak, but a few notable pieces from some of the Committee.