Federal Reserve

Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"

Without further signs of deterioration in the labor market, the Committee is unlikely to cut in December. By our count, a majority of the FOMC is leaning against a December cut.

A light week of Fedspeak. We heard from Powell this week, who dodged a question about a July cut.

This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part 2 discusses the implications of recent productivity dynamics, Part 3 discusses the Fed&

An eventful week of Fedspeak changes many of our views of where Committee members are.

In the days after the FOMC press conference, we have a couple of speakers talking about the possibility that they may need to move to protect the labor market.

Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite will receive our FOMC preview a week early, at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. What To Expect: The Fed has signaled a hold on interest rates not just in June, but throughout the summer. With risks to the inflation trajectory on