Federal Reserve

The Fed will hold, but will still probably not want to talk too much about 2024.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

Waller effectively put the nail in the coffin of further rate hikes with his comments this week.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

In this piece, we’ll take a look at how the Fed’s thinking on the labor market has changed as the data validated or disproved various hypotheses in 2023.