This week, FOMC members continue to project confidence in the ability of the economy to withstand the risk of a recession from tariff policy, at least long enough to allow the Fed to figure out what to do.
The post-FOMC Fedspeak from the rest of the Committee was as noncommittal as the press conference.
Last week's data leaves our take on the FOMC meeting unchanged. There are updated charts and tables with labor market and inflation data from the previous week.
The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.
The Fedspeak this week is still: wait and see, and we care most about keeping inflation under control.
