September 2024 FOMC Preview
Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.
Fedspeak
91 posts
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor: 9/8/24
It's the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period for the September meeting. Everyone speaking this week is on board with Powell's assessment that the labor market is at least balanced.
Paid-members
Fedspeak Monitor 9/2/24
A quiet week after Jackson Hole. What we did hear this past week showed that Powell has some convincing to do on the Committee.
Powell is Right: the FOMC Shouldn't Prematurely Endorse Gradualism
Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.
Fedspeak Monitor 8/24/24
Powell's Jackson Hole speech made clear that rate cuts will begin in September. Most notable what he did not say: "gradual." Powell is keeping the door open to a larger cut in September.
