Fiscal Policy

Whether or not we see another boom in productivity is a question of policy, not a question of fate.

Tight labor markets and strong investment are crucial to securing the three-legged stool of productivity growth, but a stable supply of the essentials may be the most important to focus on today.

The second leg of the productivity growth stool is a boom in fixed investment. This is the heart of productivity growth in many ways, and is critical to achieving disinflationary dynamics over the medium term.

For decades, “jobless recovery” has been a watchword in the aftermath of each recession. But in the 1990s—and today—we saw a fully recovered labor market.

"The Dream of the 90's" examines the macroeconomic conditions that led to strong growth in the late-1990s and what policies can revive that productivity growth today.

Note: We have retracted a previous version of this Research Report. This is a republished version with a correction and clarification in the discussion of how financial subsidy should be calculated for equity investments. Introduction Right now, the Federal Government is rolling out the largest suite of industrial policy projects

In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...

Administration Lawyers are Walking the President into a Constitutional Crisis

Many thanks to Carlos Mucha for his generous assistance. The 14th Amendment is strongly relevant to the debt ceiling, but unlike what some elected officials and journalists have claimed, it is not a ‘hidden power’ that can be invoked to carry out some obvious action. It is a Constitutional constraint