FOMC

Today’s hot PCE print keeps a June hike plausibly in play though it still seems like a hold is the better baseline view. This week saw another big round of Fedspeak — though we are still notably waiting on updates from Esther George.

Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…

Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots.We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.

Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots. We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.

This past week saw a flurry of fedspeak with a bit of a common theme: waiting for the data. The next few weeks leading up to the June meeting will see new readings from a wide range of indicators, PCE and Jobs Day most important among them.

This past week saw a flurry of fedspeak with a bit of a common theme: waiting for the data. The next few weeks leading up to the June meeting will see new readings from a wide range of indicators, PCE and Jobs Day most important among them. Presumably FOMC members

With most of the week covered by the Fed’s blackout period and FOMC meeting, updates are light on this week’s Fedspeak Monitor. On Wednesday, Chair Powell made sure during the press conference everyone understood that the decision to shift from:

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