Growth

Jan 31, 2024

It Wasn't AI: How Fiscal Supports, Supply Chain Healing, & Full Employment Explain Exceptional Productivity In 2023

by Skanda Amarnath

The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year flagged three forces that should support better productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cautious optimists about productivity improvement for some

| Jan 28, 2024

Activity Update: Preliminary Signs Of Stabilization From The Consumer & The Services Sector - January 28, 2024

by Skanda Amarnath

| Jan 21, 2024

Activity Update: Still A Slowdown, But Some Encouraging That We're Close To Turning A Corner - January 21, 2024

by Skanda Amarnath

| Jan 14, 2024

Activity Update: An Encouraging Week For The Activity Outlook, But Very Little Learned From Realized Data In The Past Week - January 14, 2024

by Skanda Amarnath

| Jan 07, 2024

Activity Update: The Data Is Not Delivering (Yet). We Have To Mark Up The Probability Of A Recession - January 7, 2024

by Skanda Amarnath