Industrial Policy
We are seeing an economy that is still growing, slowing, and stabilizing as businesses come to understand the dynamics of the post-pandemic environment. With that said, we might be close to the end of the downswing part of “normalization”.
Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”
In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...
Investments in improving and expanding the grid are potentially a strong tailwind to the macroeconomic investment picture. Just electrical transmission, distribution and industrial apparatus represents around 5% of business equipment, around 2% fixed investment and around 0.3% of GDP...
Some are already beginning to worry about the Inflation Reduction Act “crowding out” investment by the private sector. Yet the private sector is seeing things differently. In the most recent earnings call from major US steel producer Cleveland Cliffs, spending from the IRA was explicitly cited as a reason to
The following was originally presented as “Towards Macroprudential Fiscal Policy” at the Coordinating the Supply Side: Creating a Systemic Industrial Policy for the 21st Century conference put on by the Berggruen Institute in December 2022. In light of recent discussion about the scope, aims, and variety embedded in industrial policy,
The surprise announcement of OPEC cuts this weekend has caught market participants and the Biden administration off-guard. OPEC's "voluntary" cuts to crude oil production have pushed up crude oil prices across the futures curve. From our vantage point, these OPEC cuts are a potentially welcome development
This is the fourth piece in the Contingent Supply series, which looks at the operational requirements, financial needs, and economic opportunities involved in using the SPR to stabilize oil markets.
As the Biden Administration considers actions to lower oil prices (particularly in wake of the recent OPEC+ production cut), it can and should make every effort to boost domestic oil production.
