Inflation Expectations

As everyone is watching for signs of recession, some are warning that weakness in surveys like the ISM Manufacturing PMIs indicate an imminent recession. Since expectations play a major (and multi-faceted, as one can have expectations about all sorts of things) role in investment and employment...

This week was light on Fedspeak, with new statements from committee members Powell, Daly, Williams and Bostic. Bostic took a dovish note, further reiterating his belief that the Fed should consider the most recent meeting the beginning of a pause, rather than a skip in the hiking cycle.

This week was light on Fedspeak, with new statements from committee members Powell, Daly, Williams and Bostic. Bostic took a dovish note, further reiterating his belief that the Fed should consider the most recent meeting the beginning of a pause, rather than a skip in the hiking cycle. Williams did

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic

This past week saw the Fedspeak dominated by Chair Powell’s testimony and q&a from the Humphrey-Hawkins Hearings. Twice a year, senators and house members get the opportunity to question the Fed Chair on the conduct of monetary policy in light of the dual mandate...

This past week saw the Fedspeak dominated by Chair Powell’s testimony and q&a from the Humphrey-Hawkins Hearings. Twice a year, senators and house members get the opportunity to question the Fed Chair on the conduct of monetary policy in light of the dual mandate...

Throughout the pandemic recovery, high inflation has been attributed to tight labor markets and high wage growth. Fed officials have, for months, maintained that the labor market needs to soften in order to bring down inflation. Commentators have pointed to high wage growth as a source of cost-push inflation: My