Inflation

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

Summary: The risks for May (CPI) are still tangibly to the upside, but developments from April CPI do shade favorably relative to what was the baseline headed into the April CPI preview.

Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…

What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment, and climate outlooks. Why It Matters: In recessions, trucking