Inflation
Summary: The risks for May (CPI) are still tangibly to the upside, but developments from April CPI do shade favorably relative to what was the baseline headed into the April CPI preview.
Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…
What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment, and climate outlooks. Why It Matters: In recessions, trucking
What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment and climate outlooks.
New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and used autos is threatening to stall out. Yesterday, we got new industrial production data from the Fed, and there is encouraging news
Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year, industrial production
We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.
This preview was originally released this past weekend to Premium Donors. If you would like to get the first look at this kind of content, please feel free to reach out to us here Summary: The risks for April (CPI) are tangibly to the upside, primarily because the upside risks
