Jobs Day
So far, the labor market has taken the slowdown in labor demand in the healthiest way possible. If the labor market slows more than expected, the Fed may not have the luxury of patience anymore.
The following post was released to our MacroSuite subscribers subscribers on 2/25/2025. If you'd like to start a 90-day free trial of our exclusive content, you can do so using this link. If you have any questions or would like to see samples of our past
Following up on our publication of "real-time" payroll growth time series that cut through data revision issues (see more here) , we are now publishing regular updates of our forward-looking payrolls views to our MacroSuite subscribers. Feb 2025 Baseline Views (Assume No Revisions) * Nonfarm Payrolls: +160k monthly gain. We
The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.
The further slowing we were worried about last month, particularly in the prime-age employment rate, did not materialize. This sets back expectations for earlier and more rate cuts this year, but it’s certainly a good report for anyone concerned about the left tail of labor market risk.
The labor market is treading water at this point. It’s not drowning, but it’s unclear how long it can remain in this state.
Due to the October payroll number marred by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the real signal comes from the household survey (where those who are absent due to weather are still counted as employed) and the negative revisions to previous months.
