Labor Markets

Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what such a rise in the unemployment rate typically implied. Most prime working age cohorts actually saw rising employment and

Both initial and continuing claims fell slightly with this week's data.

Key Takeaways:  * This post is a follow up to our piece last week outlining why Reported Quarterly Growth (RQG) is a better approach to accounting for data changes more transparently. * This methodology allows us to account for revisions more robustly and to run rigorous back-tests and stress-tests to see how