Labor Markets
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of hikes. 2. FOMC members are likely to signal that the peak Fed Funds Rate will be above 5%, likely in the target
As Congress considers a year-end spending bill, it faces a decision that will have a meaningful effect on inflation: whether or not to extend across-the-board Medicare reimbursement rates.
Overall the labor market data from November show a mixed picture, with the establishment survey showing resilience even as the household survey signaling a slowdown.
A Labor Supply Shock? Much ado has been made about the shortfall in the headline employment-to-population ratio and the headline labor force participation rate of late. Many have claimed that recent wage and price pressures trace back to a “labor supply shock”. Some have even tried to make the more
Summary 1. Friday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth, we are continuing to see a slower—though still highly respectable and resilient—pace of gross labor income growth (~6.1% annualized
This is the second piece of our vacancies series. In this piece, we refute specific vacancy-backed arguments that the Federal Reserve will need to engineer a recession in order to bring inflation under control.
The Federal Reserve has given job vacancy data center stage in assessing the strength of the labor market. The theoretical and empirical issues with vacancies data show that this is a mistake.
Two things are all but guaranteed for the rest of the week: 1. The Fed is going to hike 75 basis points (2.25%-2.50%) and signal that it remains vigilant about inflation. Their characterization of growth dynamics are likely to remain on the rosier side, and inflation expectations
Repeated price crashes in a variety of industries led to a situation of underinvestment in productive capacity that created the conditions for the inflation we see today.
