Labor Markets

Job growth has slowed sharply, and even if one attributes a large part of that to slowing labor supply from lower immigration, prime-age employment rates are now down 0.5pp from a year ago

On the whole, this is a good jobs report. It’s hard to find much fault with the data here, and it significantly diminishes the prospects of a July cut.

So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.

Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.