Labor Markets

Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.

This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.

Tariffs are back. With President Trump implementing and still proposing sweeping new import tariffs, the U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of policy-driven price increases and a new round of supply-driven cost-push inflation. If enacted for a long enough period of time, these policies could push up the

So far, the labor market has taken the slowdown in labor demand in the healthiest way possible. If the labor market slows more than expected, the Fed may not have the luxury of patience anymore.

The following post was released to our MacroSuite subscribers subscribers on 2/25/2025. If you'd like to start a 90-day free trial of our exclusive content, you can do so using this link. If you have any questions or would like to see samples of our past

Following up on our publication of "real-time" payroll growth time series that cut through data revision issues (see more here) , we are now publishing regular updates of our forward-looking payrolls views to our MacroSuite subscribers. Feb 2025 Baseline Views (Assume No Revisions) * Nonfarm Payrolls: +160k monthly gain. We

The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.