Labor Market Recap April 2025
So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.
So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.
This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.
The further slowing we were worried about last month, particularly in the prime-age employment rate, did not materialize. This sets back expectations for earlier and more rate cuts this year, but it’s certainly a good report for anyone concerned about the left tail of labor market risk.
The 1990s saw an extended period of full employment, high growth, and low inflation. Part of this achievement was attributable to healthcare cost control efforts undertaken by both public- and private-sector actors.
Due to the October payroll number marred by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the real signal comes from the household survey (where those who are absent due to weather are still counted as employed) and the negative revisions to previous months.