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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

215 Posts
Preston Mui

The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44%, combined with dovish Fedspeak from Williams, pushes us to update our Fed Views. Our baseline is now one cut by January, more likely than not in December.

Given the lack of data between now and the next meeting, unemployment claims and soft data may determine the tiebreak.

A lot of hawkish Fedspeak from the regional bank presidents this week.

Without further signs of deterioration in the labor market, the Committee is unlikely to cut in December. By our count, a majority of the FOMC is leaning against a December cut.

Both initial and continuing claims fell slightly with this week's data.

This week we heard from a number of doves who were non-commital about a December cut.

At the FOMC press conference Powell made clear that there is a lot of disagreement over whether or not the Fed will cut in December, and that was reflected in the Fedspeak this week.

With the government shutdown, the intermeeting period did not have enough data to deter the Fed from cutting by 25bps again in October.

With the government shutdown, the intermeeting period did not have enough data to deter the Fed from cutting again in October.

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