Preston Mui

While the market has gotten more optimistic about cuts, we are going the other way. We have no cuts in 2026H1 as our base case, given the trajectory of inflation and the enduring steadiness of the labor market.

The details of the household survey were unambiguously good, with increasing employment and participation, lower part-time underemployment, and an improving composition of employment and unemployment.

Cook and Jefferson sound more concerned about inflation; Daly continues her dovishness.

We heard from the Trump doves this week arguing that inflation is basically not a problem and that policy is restrictive. On the other hand Musalem sounds pretty dead set against more rate cuts this year, arguing that we're at neutral.

This has been one of the most telegraphed meetings in a while, as pretty much every FOMC member, from hawk to dove, has signaled their intent to hold rates for the near future, barring visible labor market stress.

This has been one of the most telegraphed meetings in a while, as pretty much every FOMC member, from hawk to dove, has signaled their intent to hold rates for the near future, barring visible labor market stress.

We heard from a lot of members this week. Mary Daly's "We will need to be deliberate as we calibrate policy" line is representative of where the core of the Committee is.

We are combining the Fed Views and Fed Expectations aspects of the Financial Condition Monitor with the Fedspeak Monitor, which will be delivered mid-day on Mondays

Like pretty much every report this year, it’s a low-hire, low-fire report with weakness on the margins—but not quite as dire as the unemployment rate suggests.