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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

224 Posts
Preston Mui

We heard from a lot of members this week. Mary Daly's "We will need to be deliberate as we calibrate policy" line is representative of where the core of the Committee is.

We are combining the Fed Views and Fed Expectations aspects of the Financial Condition Monitor with the Fedspeak Monitor, which will be delivered mid-day on Mondays

Like pretty much every report this year, it’s a low-hire, low-fire report with weakness on the margins—but not quite as dire as the unemployment rate suggests.

FOMC members react to the CPI release and the FOMC decision.

While the increase in the unemployment rate isn't dire, there are definitely signs of weakness in the labor market.

Just a bit of Fedspeak following last week's FOMC meeting. We got a better look into Paulson's views. She comes off as quite dovish, stressing labor market risk.

We expect the rate cut to be accompanied with a strong preference for optionality to  pause at the next meeting, with no clear commitments to further cuts anytime soon. Our baseline case has the median projection at 2 more cuts in 2026, but with nine members projecting no more than one cut.

We expect the rate cut to be accompanied with a strong preference for optionality to  pause at the next meeting, with no clear commitments to further cuts anytime soon. Our baseline case has the median projection at 2 more cuts in 2026, but with nine members projecting no more than one cut.

Nothing new in the last week of Fedspeak before the blackout period, just FOMC members retrenching their previous positions.

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