The Fed's preferred inflation gauges are deflators of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the consumer spending component of GDP. These price indices are based on a few input data sources, including the Consumer Price Indices (CPI),Producer Price Indices (PPI), and Import Price Index (IPI), but are methodologically distinct from them. We usually have a decent read of PCE deflators after CPI (which tends to be the first inflation gauge released), but there are a lot of controls and calculations to account for. When updating views month to month about inflation, the dirty work here matters.
Core Cast

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238 Posts
Core-Cast
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Jun 13, 2023
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Summary: The risks for May (CPI) are still tangibly to the upside, but developments from April CPI do shade favorably relative to what was the baseline headed into the April CPI preview.
Core-Cast
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May 26, 2023
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Core-Cast
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May 26, 2023
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State Space
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May 24, 2023
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,