Core Cast

This post was originally published two days ago for Employ America donors. If you’re interested in early and extended access to our content, email us at donate@employamerica.org Summary: The risks for February and Q1 core inflation remain asymmetrically tilted to the upside relative to consensus forecasts. We

Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on the food and energy impulse from what we might call the "Putin shock" to key commodities. At the same time,

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in

Core-Cast is our real-time nowcasting model that tracks the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but translation from CPI to PCE must be done with care. Meanwhile,