Inflation Analysis
Quantitative research that disaggregates price data to identify which goods and services are driving inflation, and uncovering the specific supply-side disruptions that are behind the increase. This detailed analysis allows us to predict inflation trajectories with remarkable accuracy - our forecasts have outperformed predictions from several prominent financial institutions. We design targeted responses that address root causes rather than symptoms, enabling policymakers to combat rising prices without sacrificing the employment gains that benefit American workers.
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Read the Latest
We reconstruct the White House’s core non-housing services wage index. We walk through the construction of this series, which is available for premium donors.
Bottom Line: The consumer has proven to be resilient in its spending patterns in a number of respects, but real food consumption has not. Given the correction in domestic food consumption, and the potential peaking out of 'food at home' inflation, food services inflation has plausible potential to
The economy, as we all know, is mainly made up of goods and services that people buy and sell. This is an intuitive divide: when you pay for something – whether you are a business, household, or government – it’s either an object or an action, and its prices are based
The Fed is worried that inflation will continue until wage growth comes down or unemployment ticks up based on the continued strength in “Core PCE Services ex-Housing”. But the Fed is wrong to be so confident.
For those who have followed my Twitter feed, you will know that I have long pointed out that "narrow vs broad-based," "transitory vs persistent," and "supply vs demand" are not three ways of saying the same thing.
In the coming weeks, we hope to discuss in greater detail what kinds of labor market and inflation outcomes the Fed should be aiming for. Here is an initial layout of how some of our macroeconomic views tend to differ from senior Fed officials. The Fed has increasingly gone back
Market rents are decelerating, which means CPI-measured rents – and with them, core and headline CPI – should ultimately decelerate as well, with a lag. But is this deceleration due to the Fed’s actions? Or is it because job growth is slowing down endogenously, as many have been expecting over this
When we disaggregate the aggregate inflation statistics, we find that the sources of high inflation in the US and Europe are different.
