Inflation Analysis
Quantitative research that disaggregates price data to identify which goods and services are driving inflation, and uncovering the specific supply-side disruptions that are behind the increase. This detailed analysis allows us to predict inflation trajectories with remarkable accuracy - our forecasts have outperformed predictions from several prominent financial institutions. We design targeted responses that address root causes rather than symptoms, enabling policymakers to combat rising prices without sacrificing the employment gains that benefit American workers.
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In this first piece of a series, we’re going to walk through an overview of the ways inflation statistics can diverge between countries and demonstrate just how difficult it is to establish apples-to-apples comparisons between aggregate inflation measures in different countries.
The White House and Congress should consider an “all-of-the-above” approach oriented around three objectives: (1) investments where productive capacity; (2) targeted policies for reducing sectoral demand; and (3) policies that facilitate greater competition and technological diffusion.
Repeated price crashes in a variety of industries led to a situation of underinvestment in productive capacity that created the conditions for the inflation we see today.
If we are trying to describe the nature of the real constraints that the economy has been facing over the past 6-12 months, we need a richer economic vocabulary than one that reduces every inflationary constraint to a domestic labor constraint.
Many economists and commentators disfavor reasoning about inflation from individual price increases, yet still use "core inflation" metrics, which embed reasoning about inflation from individual price increases.
January is always a high-variance month for inflation readings and especially so for this January. We have been flagging the dynamics that were likely to grease the runway to elevated inflation prints in Q4 (which mostly materialized as described). We expect general strength in the January inflation print, primarily due
It means that the White House and Congress should, where feasible, use targeted fiscal policies and structural reforms to equitably address the demand- and supply-side challenges that contribute to inflationary pressure.
The Framework Review and Forward Guidance center labor market outcomes over inflation in evaluating interest rate policy. However, the Fed haven't clarified how they will evaluate inflationary dynamics under the new regime.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the Enhanced Unemployment Insurance (EUI) provisions of the CARES Act is deeply flawed.
